I had posted a link a few months ago to a Christianity Today article on the high rate of bloggers quitting–more bloggers have quit posting than are currently active. This Side of Glory has a recent post on the same topic, asking if she would be blogging five years from now (Incidentally, her title is like the strange Bizzaro title of my blog).
On this quiet blogging week it raises a good question. Will I be doing this in five years? If you asked an Incan, the answer would be no–we’d all be dead or changed into some higher form of life (see here). Is keeping this up reasonable? A good use of time? Or will blogging be like pet rocks in half a decade?
1. Nothing will change.
This is unlikely. I didn’t even know what a blog was five years ago. Five years before that, the internet was wild and wooly and dial-up friendly. Five years before that, few had heard about “web browsers” and MOSAIC, the first “killer ap” of the ‘net was still being developed…for UNIX. Things change, and fast.
2. Blogging will be a fad after all.
More likely. Fads come and go, and five years from now many folks will probably have home entertainment servers piping mp3s to their stereos, movies and tv shows off the net to their home theaters, and more and more emailing and such from PDAs and phones. Sitting at a box in the home office browsing the net my indeed be waning in popularity as the net becomes integrated more and more into other appliances.
3. Cream will rise to the top.
Noteworthy and popular blogs will continue, and the amateur blogger will fade away. Blogs will be web-based extensions of marketing and publishing for professional writers and journalists. More old media sites will make extensive use of their staff and freelance writers’ blogs. Blog readers will serve as the new newspaper, essentially.
4. Something else will happen, of which I cannot conceive.
This is the most likely option.